Is the long life medical care system successful in controlling medical expenditure?
| Project/Area Number |
26380351
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Kumamoto Gakuen University |
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Principal Investigator |
OKAMURA KAORU 熊本学園大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (70581974)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-03-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
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| Keywords | 国民医療費 / 高齢化 / 死にともなう医療費 / 鰊の燻製仮説 / 死亡時点の医療費 / 生存者の医療費 / 集計されたデータ / 寿命の伸びの頭打ち / 終末期医療 / 国民医療費の将来予測 / 死ぬ直前の医療費 / 生きている人の医療費 / 高齢化社会 / 生きている高齢者の医療費 / 高齢者医療費 / 医療費の将来予測 / 死亡時の医療費 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In recent years, previous studies pointed out that the increase in medical expenses is due to medical expenses for death, in addition to aging. In Japan, where the declining birthrate and aging society is advancing, it is expected that the mortality rate will be about twice in the near future. If the cause of the increase in medical expenses of death, the future total medical expenses in Japan will be enormous.
To answer this question, we decomposed national medical expenditure by age group for survivors and nonsurvivors. Analysis showed that the medical expenses for nonsurvivors in some age groups are greater than the medical expenses for survivors. However, when applying this result to the demographic of society and considering it as the future medical expenditure per capita, the medical expenditure of survivors made a large contribution, especially the elderly (70s and 80s) account for 60% of it.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
近年日本では増加し続ける国民医療費の問題に関連して、死ぬ間際の医療費が巨額であることから、医療費抑制のためには死期に近づいた人の医療行為を見直すべきだという議論がされている。しかし本研究の分析結果からは、死にともなう医療費は将来の総医療費の増加の主要因とはならないといえる。この結果は学術的には、医療費増大の要因は高齢化とするのはまやかしで真に問題にすべきは死にともなう医療費であるとする「鰊の燻製仮説」を部分的に支持する。すなわち鰊の燻製仮説は年齢階層別に見た場合、一部の年齢階層においてのみ正しいといえる。また社会的には終末期医療のあり方に関する社会的議論に根拠ある見解として貢献する。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(1 results)
