Oil Prices and the Japanese Economy: From the Perspective of the Current Account and Export-Import Industries

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15H06585
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Keio University
• Principal Investigator: WADA Tatsuma 慶應義塾大学, 総合政策学部(藤沢), 准教授 (20756580)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-08-28 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 原油価格 / 鉱工業生産指数 / 経常収支 / VARモデル / 非線形モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

I utilize the industrial production indices (IPs) and the real oil price to uncover the relationship between those two variables. Also, the effect of oil price changes on the current account balance. In particular, I allow for the so-called asymmetry in response, i.e., the responses of IPs to the change in the real oil price is asymmetry. It is then found that almost no industry, out of 149, reveals asymmetry.

Free Research Field

経済学