The Reconstruction of interpretative sociology and communication system theory with Bayesian statistics

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K03813
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Sociology
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Sato Toshiki 東京大学, 大学院総合文化研究科, 教授 (10221285)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 適合的因果 / 意味システム論 / 統計的因果推論 / 理解社会学 / ベイズ統計学 / コミュニケーションシステム

Outline of Final Research Achievements

1) The method of causal analysis by Weber, which is known as “adequate causation”, was imported from the methodological research by Johannes von Kries, who is one of the most famous biologist and statistician in the second half of 19 century in Germany.2) Von Kreis already defined causality counterfactually and measured it with the concept of probability. Therefore his “adequate causation” is the very proto -type of Statistical Causal Inference in these days, and so Weber’s causal analysis also shares the same framework.
3) Weber's more well-known method, so-called “interpretative sociology” is also reconstructed with the framework of another well-known statistical inference, Bayes statistics. In this reconstruction, indeterminacy of meaning of social action is seen as one kind of indeterminacy in Bayesian inference, the extent of which depends on size of observations. Therefore, indeterminacy of meaning of action also depends on the chance of its observation.

Free Research Field

社会学