Establishment of a Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Method and Detection of Crustal Activity by Precise Observation of Electromagnetic Radio and Plasma Waves on Earth

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 18K04129
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 21020:Communication and network engineering-related
• Research Institution: University of Toyama
• Principal Investigator: Fujii Masafumi 富山大学, 学術研究部工学系, 准教授 (60361945)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 電磁波観測 / VHF / 地表面プラズマ波 / 応力誘起電荷 / 個体電気伝導 / 短期地震予測 / 地殻活動モニタリング / 電磁波解析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In order to establish a short-term earthquake prediction method based on new principles of electromagnetics, electro-physics and electro-chemistry, we designed and fabricated a narrow-band filter to reduce very high frequency (VHF) band noise, and placed low-noise, high-sensitivity radio wave observation devices at several locations, and successfully detected anomalous radio propagation signals several hours before major earthquakes. We also succeeded in detecting anomalous radio propagation signals several hours before large earthquakes. Furthermore, we clarified the physical mechanism by which anomalous signals are generated in relation to earthquakes through large-scale numerical simulations, and showed that it is possible to monitor crustal activity over a range of several hundred kilometers and to predict earthquakes in the short term.

Free Research Field

電磁波工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、地震の発生を数日から数時間前に察知し、その事態に備え、予期せぬ事態を最小化することを目標としている。これまでは地震が突然発生し、不意を突かれることによる不安と災害が極めて大きかったが、数時間前の予測が可能になれば心理的、社会的な安全や減災の効果は極めて大きい。学術的にもこれまで非常に困難とされていた地震の短期予測が可能であることおよびその物理機構を示した意義は小さくない。