Statistical interferences and models to partially observed point processes

2009 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20840043
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (Start-up)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: General mathematics (including Probability theory/Statistical mathematics)
• Research Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: ZHUANG Jiancang The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, モデリング研究系, 助教 (70465920)
• Project Period (FY): 2008 – 2009
• Keywords: 地震活動 / 点過程 / フィルタリング / Neyman-Scott過程 / ギャンブリング評価法 / 前震 / 余震 / Bath法則

Research Abstract

This research took the processes of earthquake occurrences as an example, developed statistical inferences to partially observed point processes, also revealed some physical properties related to earthquakes, including : 1) discovery of foreshock phenomena as a results of generic earthquake clustering ; 2) explanation the Bath law through clustering model ; 3) estimation of cluster-center process of Neyman-Scott processes, and 4) proposing of the gambling scoring method for testing performance of black-box type prediction algorithms.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California? (2010)
  • Author(s): Wang, Q., Jackson D.D., Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: J. Geophys. Res. (in press) Pages: 10. 1029/2009JB007031
• [Journal Article] Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region (2010)
  • Author(s): Jiang C.S., Zhuang J.C.
  • Journal Title: Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese with English abstract) 53(2) Pages: 10. 3969/j. issn. 001-5733
• [Journal Article] Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International. 181 Pages: 382-390. DOI:10. 1111/j. 1365-246X, 04496. x
• [Journal Article] 地震活動のクラスタリングおよび除群化の統計モデル (2009)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Journal Title: 統計数理 57(2) Pages: 179-193
• [Journal Article] Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities. (2008)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J., Christophosen A., Savage M.K., Vere-Jones D., Ogata Y., Jackson D.D.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research 113,B11302 Pages: 10. 1029/2008JB005579
• [Journal Article] On the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model. (2008)
  • Author(s): Vere-Jones D., Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Physical Review E. 78047102 Pages: 10. 1103/PhysRevE. 78. 047102
• [Presentation] A new scoring method for evaluating the performance of earthquake forecasts and predictions (2009)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J
  • Organizer: 2009 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: San Francisco, アメリカ
  • Year and Date: 2009-12-16
• [Presentation] A New Scoring Method for Earthquake Predictions and Forecasts (2009)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2009年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学
  • Year and Date: 2009-12-16
• [Presentation] Online forecasting and offline optimization: daily earthquake forecasts by using a model that requires heavy computation (2009)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 国際シンポジウム“地震発生予測システムの構築に向けて"
  • Place of Presentation: 東京大学
  • Year and Date: 2009-05-27
• [Presentation] Gambling scores for evaluating earthquake forecasts and predictions (2009)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2009年大会
  • Place of Presentation: 海浜幕張
  • Year and Date: 2009-05-20
• [Presentation] Using Gambling scores for evaluating performance of earthquake, predictions/forecasts (2009)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 国際統計地震学第6回大会
  • Place of Presentation: Lake Tahoe, California, アメリカ
  • Year and Date: 2009-04-14
• [Presentation] Simulation studies on the differences between spontaneous and triggered seismicity and on foreshock probabilities (2008)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K., Jackson, D.D.
  • Organizer: 2008 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ, アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2008-12-17
• [Presentation] Statistical modeling of earthquake clusters and declustering (2008)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 中国地震学会2008年学術大会
  • Place of Presentation: 中国北京
  • Year and Date: 2008-12-03
• [Presentation] Local likelihood estimates for point processes with applications in detecting spatial changes of seismicity in Japan (2008)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 科研基盤研究(A)「時空間現象データに対する統計科学モデルの構築及び解析に関する組織的研究」研究集会
  • Place of Presentation: 那覇市
  • Year and Date: 2008-11-28
• [Presentation] Model dependent differences between background and triggered earthquakes and their influences on foreshock probabilities (2008)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., Jackson, D.D.
  • Organizer: 第7回アジア国際地震学連合(ASC)総会・2008年日本地震学会(SSJ)秋季大会合同大会
  • Place of Presentation: つくば市
  • Year and Date: 2008-11-27
• [Presentation] Local likelihood ETAS models for the seismicity in the Italian region (2008)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: INGV Workshop「The Italian testing region for earthquake forecasting experiments within CSEP」
  • Place of Presentation: ローマ, イタリア共和国
  • Year and Date: 2008-10-28
• [Presentation] Using weighted likelihood estimates to detect spatial seismicity changes (2008)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: ヨーロッパ科学財団(ESF)研究集会: New Challenges in Earthquake Dynamics: Observing and Modeling a Multi-Scale System
  • Place of Presentation: Obergurgl, オーストリア共和国
  • Year and Date: 2008-10-18
• [Presentation] Weighted likelihoods and maximum local likelihoods estimates for point processes (2008)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 統計関連学会2008年度連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 横浜市
  • Year and Date: 2008-10-10
• [Remarks] Zhuang, J. (2009) Intensity inferences for a partially observed self-similar point process,ISM research memorandum,No.1110.