Development of a dynamic modeling system for typhoon disasters with coupled typhoon-ocean environment

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24686058
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Gifu University
• Principal Investigator: YOSHINO Jun 岐阜大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 准教授 (70377688)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 自然災害 / 防災 / 水工水理学 / 海岸工学 / 気象学 / 高潮 / 台風 / 地球温暖化

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, a dynamic modeling system for typhoon disasters has been developed in order to evaluate typhoon destructive forcing induced by a super typhoon at landfall. The modeling system predicts that the intensity and frequency of severe typhoon over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean increase with increasing greenhouse gas emission in late 21 century. The maximum potential storm surge heights also increase along the coastline in Japan with a trend of 50 cm/100year and a standard deviation of 70-100 cm. It is concluded that interannual variability of potential maximum storm surge height is large enough that the largest-scale storm surge disaster is anticipated to occur imminently regardless of how much of the global warming from the present to the late 21st century progresses actually.

Free Research Field

土木工学・水工学