Pre-modern Japan's GDP per capita: estimates, analysis and international comparisons

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26285075
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic history
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: SAITO Osamu 一橋大学, 名誉教授 (40051867)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 深尾 京司 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 教授 (30173305) ; 攝津 斉彦 武蔵大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (30613393) ; 尾高 煌之助 一橋大学, 名誉教授 (90017658) ; 尾関 学 岡山大学, 大学院社会文化科学研究科, 准教授 (90345455)
• Research Collaborator: BASSINO Jena-Pascal Lyons Institute of East Asian Studies, Institut d' Asie Orientale, Professor ; BROADBERRY Steve University of Oxford, Nuffield College, Professor ; TAKASHIMA Masanori 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 研究機関研究員 ; SCHREUERS Geert 一橋大学, 大学院・経済学研究科
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 経済史 / 日本経済史 / 歴史的国民所得論 / 一人当たり国内総生産 / 人口推計 / 都市化 / 部門シェア

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The aim of this research was to make fresh estimates of pre-Meiji Japan’s GDP per capita and to conduct a comparative analysis on the basis of the new evidence. Based on new estimates for population in 1600 and a new estimation methodology, we have set out a new series of GDP per capita and its sectoral breakdowns for the period between 1600 and 1874, which will replace the estimates by A. Maddison. Our estimates in 1990 international dollars for 1600, 1721 and 1874 are $659, $669 and $1,013. They are 27%, 17% and 34% larger than Maddison’s respectively. While Maddison’s tended to show that Tokugawa-period growth was monotonic, our estimates are more articulated: the 1600-1721 period saw no increase but the 1721-1874 period exhibited a little stronger growth, while structural change was more pronounced in the first than in the second period. In an international perspective, Japan’s early modern performance was modest and steady but remained so even in the late 19th century.

Free Research Field

経済史と歴史人口学。近世から近代初めまでの日本経済史を軸に，比較経済発展論的研究を行っている。