A trial for calculating the seismic risk only from severe earthquake disaster

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26330056
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction
• Principal Investigator: Matsu'ura Ritsuko S. 公益財団法人地震予知総合研究振興会, その他部局等, 部長 (70462934)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): TSUBAKI Hiroe 統計数理研究所, 名誉教授 (30155436)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 歴史地震 / 地震活動 / 地震リスク / 地震ハザード / 激甚災害 / リスクマップツール / 近世以降400年間の震度統計 / ハザードマップ

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The current Japanese earthquake hazard map overestimated earthquake hazards than it actually was, except for the short period immediately after the 2011 big earthquake. Since Japanese infrastructures are strong enough, we can focus only on the large intensities to estimate seismic risk. We examined a new method to estimate appropriate seismic hazards for Japan. It was effective to estimate the seismic intensities by a new empirical formula that can estimate the seismic intensity on the surface directly from a given distance, size, and the type of an earthquake. The distribution function with the upward convex for the seismic intensity frequency was also useful. Our result on hazard estimation will be expanded toward a risk map tool, which shows the estimated damage on a map from the various risk factors located on the map, instead of a single estimation for only one scenario for a certain source.

Free Research Field

地震統計