The correlation between rainfall amount and frequency of pastoral conflicts in East Africa

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26370941
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Cultural anthropology
• Research Institution: Hirosaki University
• Principal Investigator: Soga Toru 弘前大学, 人文社会科学部, 教授 (00263062)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 東アフリカ / 牧畜社会 / 乾燥帯 / 降雨 / 紛争

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The correlation between rainfall amount and frequency of conflict was investigated in pastoral societies of arid area in East Africa. We examined the correlation between the rainfall data of the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the frequency of conflicts obtained from the field research. Although the amount of rainfall was relatively high in the year of 2014, low-intensity disputes frequently occurred. The frequency of conflict was low in both 2015 and 2016 though the amount of rainfall was the smallest in 2015, while it was sufficient in 2016. There was drought in early 2017, and the frequency of conflict was high after the drought ended. It is suggested that the hypothesis that conflicts increase if less rainfall is not necessarily applicable in pastoral societies of arid area.

Free Research Field

人類学