Proposal of a use-friendly long-term earthquake forecast method that better reflects scientific knowledge
| Project/Area Number |
25282111
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Partial Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Nagoya University |
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Principal Investigator |
Sagiya Takeshi 名古屋大学, 減災連携研究センター, 教授 (50362299)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
HASHIMOTO Manabu 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (20293962)
OKI Satoko 慶應義塾大学, 環境情報学部, 准教授 (40443337)
HIROTA Sumire 東京都市大学, 環境情報学部, 教授 (90279703)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
NAKAYACHI Kazuya 同志社大学, 心理学部, 教授 (50212105)
KOKETSU Kazuki 東京大学, 地震研究所, 教授 (90134634)
NISHIMURA Takuya 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (90370808)
HORI Takane 海洋研究開発機構, 地震津波予測研究グループ, 主任研究員 (00359176)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥16,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,810,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥7,670,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,770,000)
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| Keywords | 地震発生長期評価 / 地震発生確率 / 地殻歪み / リスクコミュニケーション / 表現手法 / リスク認知 / 地震長期評価 / 地震ポテンシャル / 地殻変動 / 地震確率 / 地震発生予測 / 確率評価 / 地震活動 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We investigate long-term earthquake forecast method using crustal strain data that can reflect seismic potential. We found that a part of geodetic crustal strain contains inelastic strain that does not cause earthquakes. A trial to forecast earthquake numbers was successful although the number was a little overestimated. We also investigate how the long-term forecast can be used to promote people's preventing actions. Though the forecast information is effective in people's recognition of the earthquake risk, it is not sufficient to make people act for preventing disasters without additional information.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(43 results)
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[Journal Article] A comprehensive model of postseismic deformation of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake deduced from GPS observations in northern Sumatra2014
Author(s)
Gunawan, E., T. Sagiya, T. Ito, F. KImata, T. Tabei, Y. Ohta, I. Meilano, H. Z. Abidin, Agustan, I. Nurdin, and D. Sugiyanto
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Journal Title
Journal of Asian Earth Sciences
Volume: 88
Pages: 218-229
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed
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