The impact of period effect and cohort effect on incidence and future prediction by long-term stroke registry

• Project/Area Number: 25893098
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Hygiene and public health
• Research Institution: Fukushima Medical University (2014); Shiga University of Medical Science (2013)
• Principal Investigator: NAGAI Masato 福島県立医科大学, 医学部, 助教 (60707199)
• Research Collaborator: KITA Yoshikuni 敦賀市立看護大学, 看護学部看護学科, 准教授 ; TAKASHIMA Naoyuki 滋賀医科大学, 社会医学講座公衆衛生学部門, 講師
• Project Period (FY): 2013-08-30 – 2015-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: 脳卒中 / 罹患率 / 罹患者数 / 将来推計 / 推移 / Age-period cohort model / Age-period-cohort model

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The present study examined 1) the trend in stroke incidence from 1990 to 2010, 2) the impact of period effect and cohort effect on incidence trend, and 3) the estimated future number of stroke incidence.
The age-adjusted first-ever stroke incidence (/100,000 person-years) nearly halved in men from 1990-1992: 265.6 to 2008-2010: 124.5 and women from 1990-1992: 185.8 to 2008-2010: 102.2 during 20 years. The impact of period effect and cohort effect on incidence was small. The estimated future number of stroke incidence in participants aged 30 years or over increased 26,572 (2010：101,527→2030：128,099) in men and 35,154 (2010: 82,852→2030: 118,006）) in women until 2030.

Research Products

• [Presentation] Trend in stroke incidence in Shiga, Japan, 1990-2010 (2014)
  • Author(s): Nagai M, Kita Y, Takashima N, Murakami Y, Abbott RD, Turin TC, Rumana N, Miura K, Ueshima H
  • Organizer: 20th IEA World Congress of Epidemiology
  • Place of Presentation: Anchorage
  • Year and Date: 2014-08-17 – 2014-08-21
• [Presentation] Trend in stroke incidence in Shiga, Japan, 1990-2010 (2014)
  • Author(s): Masato Nagai, Yoshikuni Kita, Naoyuki Takashima, Yoshitaka Murakami, Robert D. Abbott, Tanvir chowdhury Turin, Nahid Rumana, Katsuyuki Miura, Hirotsugu Ueshima
  • Organizer: 20th IEA World Congress of Epidemiology
  • Place of Presentation: Anchorage, USA