Prediction and integrated assessment of health risks due to heat-induced disorders and infectious diseases under climate change

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19H01144
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 63:Environmental analyses and evaluation and related fields
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Fukushi Kensuke 東京大学, 未来ビジョン研究センター, 教授 (30282114)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 渡部 徹 山形大学, 農学部, 教授 (10302192) ; 渡辺 幸三 愛媛大学, 沿岸環境科学研究センター, 教授 (80634435) ; 浦 剣 東京大学, 未来ビジョン研究センター, 助教 (40622072)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 暑熱 / 水系感染症 / 蚊媒介感染症 / 東南アジア

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The health risks of heat stroke, waterborne diseases such as diarrhea and skin diseases, and mosquito-borne infections such as dengue fever were assessed mainly in Southeast Asian cities, which are presumed to be strongly affected by climate change. The results showed that environmental risks due to heat are higher among outdoor workers (construction workers), but the risks are relatively small in Vietnam, where incomes are higher and nutritional status is better. Flooding in Vietnam increased the risk of waterborne infections and the spread of E. coli to settlements and farmland located downstream from cities. Studies of mosquito-borne infections in the Philippines and Indonesia found that dengue vector mosquito populations increased over time as precipitation increased, with each additional adult mosquito increasing the risk of dengue infection by 1.8%.

Free Research Field

サステイナビリティ学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

気候変動に伴う降雨増加や気温の異常な上昇等の極端気象が、熱中症を中心とする健康障害、下痢症・皮膚病等の水系感染症、デング熱等の蚊媒介感染症などの幅広い健康リスクを高まっていることが様々な観測データから示された。これらの健康リスクが、気候変動に対して脆弱とされる発展途上国において顕在化していることは、健康リスクの緩和に資する気候変動適応オプションを途上国で実行していくことの重要性と緊急性を示している。