A quantitative analysis of the medium term impact of financial crises

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K01549
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
• Research Institution: Keio University
• Principal Investigator: Otsu Keisuke 慶應義塾大学, 商学部(三田), 教授 (50514527)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 動学的一般均衡モデル / 金融危機 / 景気循環

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this project, I have incorporated the accumulation of knowledge capital into the business cycle accounting framework in order to decompose the short-run and medium-run fluctuation components of production efficiency and constructed the Medium Term Cycle Accounting model. In specific, I used data of output, consumption, investment, labor and medium term trend to estimate distortions in the labor market, investment market, government spending, short-run production efficiency, and medium-run efficiency and quantitatively assess their impacts on the stagnation of the G7 economies after the 2009 financial crisis.

Free Research Field

理論経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、知的資本蓄積を通じた中期的なトレンドの発生過程を明示的にモデルに含めることにより、様々な市場における歪みが短期的変動と中期的変動に与える影響をそれぞれ分解できることを示した。