Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Waste Import Regulations

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K13707
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Yamaguchi University
• Principal Investigator: Kato Shinya 山口大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (00737728)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 廃プラスチック輸入禁止措置 / 産業連関分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study quantitatively and qualitatively elucidates the impact of China's ban on the import of waste plastics on Japan, China, and the world. Specifically, the measure taken by China has led to an annual average decrease of approximately 4.2 trillion yen in Japan's production value. Consequently, the reduction in imports from Japan has caused China's production value to decrease by an annual average of 110 billion yen, resulting in an annual average global reduction of around 5 trillion yen, including Japan and China. Additionally, the impact on GDP for Japan was an average annual decrease of 0.4%, indicating that China's measure had a relatively minor effect on Japan. Furthermore, this study also sheds light on the qualitative aspects, such as the problems occurring within Japan due to China's measure.

Free Research Field

環境経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、中国の廃プラスチック輸入禁止措置が日本、中国、そして世界全体に与える影響を明らかにした。具体的には、日本の生産額が年平均4.2兆円減少し、それに伴い中国の生産額が年平均1,100億円減少、世界全体で年平均5兆円の減少が確認された。日本のGDPへの影響は年平均0.4%減と比較的軽微であることも明らかにした。学術的意義としては、中国の廃プラ禁輸措置が国際経済に与える影響を定量的に示したことが挙げられ、社会的意義としては、持続可能な廃棄物管理政策の指針となる点が挙げられる。