A study on multiple pathways and precursors to tropical cyclone rapid intensification

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K14797
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
• Research Institution: Japan, Meteorological Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: Shimada Udai 気象庁気象研究所, 台風・災害気象研究部, 主任研究官 (60750651)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 台風 / 急発達 / 最大風速 / 対流活動 / 衛星観測

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study was to show the variability of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, to examine what characteristics of convection are favorable for rapid intensification, and to find features conducive to rapid intensification prediction. Specifically, the following four topics are conducted: (1) the variability of environmental conditions for tropical cyclone rapid intensification, (2) the relationship between convective activity and for intensifying storms, (3) a comparison between observations and numerical simulations, and (4) a comparison between ocean winds from synthetic aperture radar and best track data.

Free Research Field

気象学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

未だに予測が困難な台風の急発達について十分な理解と予測改善につながる特徴を見出すことを目的として、本研究は急発達事例の多様性を軸に環境場条件や対流活動の特徴に関する研究を行った。この研究を通して、台風急発達の体系的理解が進むとともに、予測改善に資する特徴（前兆現象）の解明が進めば、社会的影響の大きな強い台風の強度予測精度が改善でき、早期かつ適切な防災対応の実現につながることが期待される。