2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Diversification of prediction scenarios for earthquake ground motion distribution based on decomposition and synthesis
| Project/Area Number |
20H02413
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
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| Research Institution | Gifu University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
久世 益充 岐阜大学, 流域圏科学研究センター, 准教授 (30397319)
香川 敬生 鳥取大学, 工学研究科, 教授 (50450911)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Keywords | 地震動分布 / 不確定性 / 多様性 / 分類・回帰 / 分解・合成 / 予測シナリオ / 津波浸水深分布 / 地震・津波リスク評価 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In ground motion prediction based on limited number of prediction scenarios, it is difficult to cover high uncertainty and wide diversity of ground motion distributions. In this study, we proposed a simulation method to generate numerous prediction samples that effectively cover inherent uncertainty and diversity by applying such techniques as classification, regression, mode decomposition and synthesis, that are used in pattern recognition and machine learning. The proposed method can be applied to tsunami inundation height distributions. It enables seismic and tsunami multi-hazard and risk assessment taking account of spatial correlation of both hazards.
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| Free Research Field |
地震工学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
地震動予測の不確定性への従来の対処方法は，震源断層パラメータにばらつきを与えて膨大なケースの強震動計算を行うもので，計算負荷の増大が不可避であった．本研究では，地震動予測地図を画像として捉えた場合の「予測シナリオが張るベクトル空間」に着目して，「張る空間の拡大」によって予測サンプルを生成するものである．こうしたシナリオ構成方法は新規性が高く，様々な災害現象の空間分布に拡張可能であり，発展性が高く学術的波及効果が大きい．また，社会的波及的効果としては，地震動予測地図の多様性に対する理解の深化，ならびに，社会全体のリスク認知力向上が期待される．
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