2011 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Prediction of risk based on extreme value theory
| Project/Area Number |
21500276
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | Kobe University |
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Principal Investigator |
TAKAHASHI Rinya 神戸大学, 大学院・海事科学研究科, 教授 (80030047)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KITANO Toshikazi 名古屋工業大学, 大学院・工学研究科, 准教授 (00284307)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
SIBUYA Masaaki 慶應義塾大学, 理工学部, 名誉教授 (20146723)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2011
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| Keywords | 統計的推測 / 極値理論 |
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| Research Abstract |
Extreme value theory plays an important role for prediction of risk. We studied the risk of natural disasters. The trends of annual maximum daily precipitation at meteorological stations in Japan were studied. We estimated the largest value of the tsunami magnitude by using the threshold and point process models. The problems to estimate the range of stress or risks were studied.
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